Paloich oil field in Melut County, Upper Nile State - Photo credit: courtesy

As exports resume after months of disruption, concerns persist over economic diversification, transparency, and the country’s continued dependence on a single oil route.

When oil resumed flowing through South Sudan’s main export pipeline on January 7, 2025, government officials in Juba welcomed the development as a major economic relief.

In many respects, they had reason to celebrate. The pipeline disruption that began in February 2024 reportedly cost the government an estimated seven million dollars in revenue every day. During the shutdown, salary payments were delayed, public services came under strain, and the South Sudanese pound lost nearly 200 percent of its value within a single fiscal year. For many households already struggling with poverty and food insecurity, the economic shock deepened hardship.

Yet the resumption of oil exports has also revived a deeper question that has remained unanswered since independence: why does South Sudan remain so vulnerable to a single point of failure?

Dependence Beyond Borders

South Sudan’s economy remains overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenues, which account for between 90 and 95 percent of government income. However, the country’s crude oil reaches international markets through infrastructure that lies beyond its borders.

The oil is transported through Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea before being exported. That dependence became starkly apparent during Sudan’s ongoing conflict, when fighters from the Rapid Support Forces reportedly intercepted a supply truck carrying chemicals needed for oil transportation. The disruption contributed to the prolonged shutdown of exports and exposed the fragility of South Sudan’s economic lifeline.

The episode highlighted more than a logistical challenge. It raised questions about sovereignty, economic planning, and whether the country’s development strategy has become overly dependent on infrastructure and political conditions outside its control.

Rising Poverty Amid Resource Wealth

The economic consequences have been severe.

According to the World Bank’s Seventh South Sudan Economic Monitor, released in March 2025, poverty has risen to 92 percent of the population, the highest level recorded since independence.

At the same time, food insecurity continues to worsen. The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, published in April 2026, estimates that 7.8 million people are facing acute food insecurity during the current lean season. Of those, approximately 73,000 are experiencing catastrophe-level hunger, more than double the figure recorded a year earlier.

The report also identifies famine as a credible risk in four counties.

These figures stand in sharp contrast to South Sudan’s natural potential. The country possesses an estimated 80 million hectares of arable land, much of which remains uncultivated. Despite this, South Sudan continues to import much of its food while relying heavily on oil exports to finance imports.

The result is a dual vulnerability: when oil exports are disrupted, both government revenues and the cost of essential goods come under pressure simultaneously.

What Oil Revenues Have Not Delivered

Since independence in 2011, oil has generated billions of dollars in revenue. Yet major structural investments frequently discussed by policymakers remain incomplete.

South Sudan continues to export crude oil while importing refined petroleum products. Plans for domestic refining capacity have been debated for years, but no refinery capable of significantly reducing import dependence has been completed.

Similarly, proposals for alternative export routes through neighbouring countries have remained largely at the discussion stage. While regional pipeline projects elsewhere in East Africa have advanced, South Sudan continues to rely almost exclusively on the Sudan route despite repeated disruptions.

The country’s fiscal structure also remains highly dependent on oil income. According to the African Development Bank, non-oil tax revenue accounts for only about 2 to 2.5 percent of GDP. As a result, fluctuations in oil production have an immediate impact on the government’s ability to finance salaries and public services.

Agriculture, often identified as a potential driver of economic diversification, has likewise struggled to develop. Recurrent flooding has affected farming communities across several regions, while many rural households continue to depend on humanitarian assistance.

Taken together, these challenges raise difficult questions about how oil revenues have been allocated over the past fifteen years and whether sufficient investments have been made to reduce the country’s economic vulnerabilities.

Calls for Greater Transparency

For many observers, the issue is no longer simply whether oil production resumes or expands, but whether citizens have access to information about how resource revenues are managed.

Advocates for greater transparency argue that detailed reporting on oil production, government revenues, and public expenditures should be made available to the public. Such disclosures, they contend, would strengthen accountability and help citizens assess whether national resources are being used effectively.

Questions have also been raised regarding implementation of the FY2025/26 national budget, which totals 4.172 trillion South Sudanese pounds. Public reporting on budget execution, including allocations to ministries and salary payments, could provide greater clarity on government spending priorities.

The debate comes as South Sudan continues to face significant public health and humanitarian challenges. According to humanitarian data published in October 2025, more than 95,000 cholera cases and over 1,500 related deaths had been reported across 55 counties.

Analysts also continue to call for clearer timelines regarding plans for domestic refining capacity and the development of alternative export routes that would reduce dependence on infrastructure located in conflict-affected areas.

Beyond the Return of Oil

Economic indicators suggest South Sudan may record strong GDP growth in the current fiscal year, largely due to recovery from the severe contraction experienced during the pipeline shutdown. On paper, the rebound could appear dramatic.

However, many citizens are unlikely to experience immediate improvements in their daily lives. Delayed salaries, rising food prices, recurring floods, and persistent insecurity continue to shape the realities faced by millions of South Sudanese.

The return of oil exports may have eased a short-term crisis. Yet the broader questions remain unresolved.

Fifteen years after independence, South Sudan continues to rely heavily on a single export route, a narrow economic base, and a revenue source vulnerable to external shocks.

As oil once again flows through the pipeline, the country’s long-term challenge remains unchanged: building an economy capable of sustaining itself when oil revenues are disrupted—or when they eventually decline.

Sources: World Bank (2025), IPC (2026), African Development Bank (2025/26), OCHA Humanitarian Snapshot (2025).

Editor’s Note: Author’s name withheld. This article is an independent analysis written by a South Sudanese researcher currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Europe. The views expressed are based on publicly available data and the author’s interpretation of current economic and governance developments in South Sudan.