Gen. Johnson Olony leader of Agwelek fighters, and Dr. Riek Machar leader of SPLM-IO - COURTESY

A report by Small Arms Survey has warned of a possible outbreak of war in Upper Nile state, saying Agwelek fighters and SPLM-IO forces have been mobilizing their fighters this month, March 2023.

A report seen by Eye Radio titled: Upper Nile Prepares to Return to War stated that after a lull in violence in January and February, the armed actors are mobilizing for conflict in Upper Nile in March 2023.

The Small Arms Survey says Agwelek fighters are backed by SSPDF, while the SPLM-IO forces are backed by the white army fighters.

The report says that Johnson Olonyi’s Agwelek forces, allied to the SSPDF, are recruiting on the west bank of the White Nile and have moved fighters from Megenis to Wau Shilluk, where their barges are currently moored.

It added that there is a further build-up of Agwelek forces in Pakang, Panyikang county.

The report stated that the Agwelek fighters could target the ports of Atar and Tonga, key trading posts along the White Nile.

It also further stated that in response to the Agwelek mobilization, the SPLM-IO and White Army forces are mobilizing youth in northern Jonglei and southern Upper Nile.

The Small Arms Survey added that the SPLA-IO has reinforced positions along the White Nile where Agwelek offensives are expected.

It says the new governor of Upper Nile, James Odhok, is unpopular among his own constituency, and his capacity to influence events on the ground is limited.

The report also says the commanders of the armed groups in Upper Nile are acting with different degrees of autonomy from their Juba backers, though ultimate responsibility for rising violence lies in the capital.

Given the likelihood of a resurgence of violence in Upper Nile, the report recommended a more robust UN response to protect civilians.

It called on the UN to establish a temporary peacekeepers’ base in conflict-affected areas.

The Small Arms Survey is a global center of excellence whose mandate is to generate impartial, evidence-based, and policy-relevant knowledge on all aspects of small arms and armed violence.