Courtesy-of-zehabesha.com

A security analyst says IGAD mediators in the crisis in South Sudan should involve countries that have influence over the country to ensure the cessation of hostilities agreement is implemented.

A senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Nairobi told Eye Radio that the cessation of hostilities agreement signed by the government of South Sudan and the SPLM/SPLA –in opposition can easily be violated if the parties to the conflict are not being held accountable.

Emmanuel Kisiangani said the Monitoring and Verification Team that is set to be established in Juba should be backed by powerful countries which have a stake in South Sudan.

“I think it will be helpful for mediators to have some leverage over the parties, to have a semblance of power, and this is where we ask that the mediators –particularly IGAD has to bring on board other actors which can have leverage over, actors who can exercise what we call ‘carrot and sticks’; the ones who can promise that if you maintain this ceasefire, then this is going to be the benefit, but if you don’t, then we have ways of dealing with that situation”, said kisiangani.

“powerful actors like the United States, the European Union, Norway…I don’t know if China is willing to come on board, but it is those powerful actors that have leverage, because the parties can simply violate the agreement in the belief that nothing can happen to them”, he continued.

Mr. Kisiangani said the accusations and counter accusations of alleged violation of the agreement by forces loyal to Dr. Riek Machar and government forces are due to a lack of trust.

He said the paper agreement needs to be translated into instructions to armed groups in the field, so that the ceasefire can hold.

“It is about mutual suspicion; one actor always thinking that the other –even in the event of having signed a ceasefire agreement may capitalize on the opportunity to destroy us; so each of them is not having the good faith to lay down their arms, because we still have troops that are conflicting on the ground. So I would say, for a document signed outside like in Addis Ababa, you need a mechanism to actually enforce it, to ensuring there is a ceasefire on the ground, and it that you may have an external actor like the UN peacekeeping mission to intervene and facilitate that”, he said.

Emmanuel Kisiangani said IGAD countries should urgently contribute forces to the UN peacekeeping mission to monitor the full adherence to the implementation of the cessation of hostilities agreement.

The next phase of talks between the government and the SPLA/SPLM in opposition will begin on Friday in Addis Ababa.