Members of the Amhara Special Force return to the Dansha Mechanized 5th division military base after fighting against the Tigray People's Liberation Front, in Danasha, Amhara region near a border with Tigray, Ethiopia, Nov. 9, 2020 | Credit | Reuters

A political analyst has warned that the ongoing civil war in Ethiopia could contribute to instability in Sudan and South Sudan if not urgently contained.

There have been armed confrontations between the Ethiopian army and the Tigray regional forces in what Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated was a response to multiple attacks by the Tigray security forces on a military command base in Mekelle and other military camps in Tigray Region.

The TPLF, which is in power in the province, denies the attack and has accused the prime minister of concocting the story to justify deploying the offensive.

The Ethiopian air force planes have carried out multiple airstrikes against TPLF military installations.

According to the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, as of 11 November, some 7,000 refugees had fled western Tigray state into neighboring Sudan, as fears grow that conflict could prompt a serious humanitarian crisis.

So far, around 30,000 Ethiopian refugees have crossed into Sudan to escape the fighting.

Aid officials have also warned hundreds of thousands more are likely to leave their homes if the conflict, now entering its second week, does not end.

Abdulmonim Abu Idris believes the conflict in Tigray region will heighten arms proliferation and influx of more refugees into the neighboring countries.

He says such influx could also lead to the smuggling of weapons across the borders of South Sudan and Sudan.

“The borders between the countries and also the ethnicities in these countries will allow the armed militias to cross over and this can trigger conflicts and inflow of weapons,” the lecturer of political science at the University of Hafad told Eye Radio.

“Historically, weapon proliferation, especially the smuggling of guns, has been a common occurrence along these borders. Therefore, the security conditions in Ethiopia will have a drastic impact on Sudan and South Sudan.”

Sudan has so far closed its border with Ethiopia and only left it partly open for refugees.

But South Sudan has not taken any measure to control the spillover of the conflict into its territory.