Photo Credit|ICPAC

JUBA, South Sudan — South Sudan could face a drier August and September before rainfall increases in parts of the country from October to December, according to the latest forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

The shift could bring relief for crops, pasture and water supplies—but also raise the risk of flooding. according to

The contrast could bring a mix of risks and opportunities for communities across the country: pressure on crops, livestock and water resources during the drier period, followed by improved pasture and water availability—but potentially greater flooding and waterlogging risks—if heavier rains develop later in the year.

ICPAC’s June–September 2026 outlook had already identified South Sudan among the countries with a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the main June–September rainfall season. The same outlook indicated a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures across most of South Sudan.

For the remainder of August, ICPAC’s regional outlook continues to point to generally dry conditions across much of South Sudan, although rainfall will vary considerably from one part of the country to another.

A potentially wetter end to the year

The outlook becomes more complicated when looking toward October–December.

ICPAC’s latest seasonal forecast indicates wetter-than-usual conditions over southern South Sudan, while other parts of the country could experience different rainfall patterns.

The regional climate centre says the October–December period could bring increased rainfall across equatorial and southern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Such rains could help regenerate rangelands, replenish surface and groundwater and improve soil moisture after the preceding dry conditions.

For South Sudanese farmers and pastoralists, that could provide some relief.

Improved rainfall could support crop development where moisture arrives at the right time, while better pasture and water availability could improve conditions for livestock.

But more rain will not necessarily mean better conditions everywhere.

From rainfall relief to flood risk

ICPAC warns that excessively wet conditions during October–December could bring flash floods, increased surface runoff and waterlogging, particularly in vulnerable areas. Flooding could damage crops, livestock, roads and other infrastructure and could contribute to localized food insecurity.

The risks are particularly important for South Sudan, where many communities remain vulnerable to flooding and where roads and other infrastructure can be severely affected when heavy rainfall occurs over a short period.

The forecast also points to heightened risks from water- and vector-borne diseases among both human and livestock populations during wetter conditions.

This means the transition from a dry August–September to a potentially wetter October–December season could require preparation on both sides: communities may need to manage water shortages and declining pasture during the dry spell, while also preparing for possible flooding when rainfall increases.

Not every part of South Sudan will experience the same conditions

ICPAC’s forecasts emphasize that seasonal outlooks describe probabilities rather than guaranteeing what will happen in every location.

The centre’s broader assessment says rainfall conditions will vary geographically, and it recommends that the seasonal outlook be used together with shorter-term monthly and weekly forecasts and information from national meteorological and hydrological services.

That distinction is important for South Sudan.

Even during a generally drier period, individual areas can still experience heavy rainfall events. ICPAC’s recent weekly forecasts, for example, have identified heavy rainfall in parts of western South Sudan despite the broader seasonal dry signal.

What South Sudan should watch

The coming months therefore present a two-sided climate risk.

August–September: Below-normal rainfall and warmer conditions could increase pressure on crops, pasture and water resources.

October–December: Increased rainfall, particularly in southern South Sudan, could improve water availability, vegetation and agricultural conditions—but excessive rainfall could also increase flooding, waterlogging, disease and infrastructure risks.

For communities, farmers, pastoralists and authorities, the message from ICPAC is therefore not simply to prepare for either drought or floods, but to prepare for both risks as rainfall patterns change.

The forecasts will continue to be updated as the season approaches, making shorter-term rainfall and flood warnings increasingly important for local decision-making.