ICPAC warns of below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures in South Sudan (June–September 2026). Photo credit: ICPAC.

A regional climate centre has warned that South Sudan is likely to receive less rainfall and experience higher temperatures between June and September this year.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), said South Sudan is expected to record below-average rainfall and hotter conditions during the June to September 2026 rainy season.

The forecast was presented during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum held from May 18 to 19.

ICPAC projects that reduced rainfall will affect most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan and parts of Kenya.

According to the outlook, South Sudan is among the countries expected to receive significantly below-average rainfall. Experts also warned that the rainy season may start late in several areas.

ICPAC says the forecast raises concern for South Sudan, where many communities depend on seasonal rainfall for farming, livestock and water supply.

The climate body also predicts above-normal temperatures across most parts of the region, with South Sudan likely to experience some of the hottest conditions.

The outlook comes as the country continues to face climate-related challenges, including floods, prolonged dry spells and food insecurity that have affected livelihoods in recent years.

Agriculture experts warn that poor rainfall could affect crop production in parts of Greater Equatoria, Bahr el Ghazal and Upper Nile regions, where communities rely heavily on rain-fed farming.

Reduced rainfall may also worsen water shortages, increase pressure on grazing land and livestock, and raise the risk of conflict over limited resources in vulnerable areas.

The forecast further raises concerns over public health, as extreme heat and water shortages could increase the spread of diseases and worsen humanitarian conditions in displacement camps and flood-affected communities.

ICPAC noted that the evolving 2026 climate conditions are similar to the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023, when South Sudan and neighbouring countries recorded below-average rainfall during the June to September season.

The regional climate centre urged governments, humanitarian agencies and communities to use the forecast for preparedness, early action and climate-informed planning.

ICPAC added that it will continue providing regular regional updates, while national meteorological authorities are expected to issue country-specific advisories in the coming months.