FILE: Map showing weather forecast in South Sudan. (-)

South Sudan Meteorological Service (SSMS) has issued a warning for extreme heat stress in Juba and surrounding areas through the end of February, with temperatures expected to rise to 45°Celsius in the afternoon.

The warning follows an analysis of global climate models, indicating warmer-than-normal conditions across the region.

Ogeith Obuol Majok, a climate scientist of SSMS, said the data was from the seasonal forecasts of the Eastern and Southern Africa Meteorological Centre (ECPAC) for the March, April and May (MAM) period.

According to the forecast, much of Eastern Africa, including South Sudan, is likely to experience drier-than-usual conditions, which could lead to above-normal temperatures.

However, Oboul said the immediate concern is the heat stress, which could impact daily activities and public health.

“For the upcoming week, we have a forecast which shows that there is no rainfall all over the country, but there is a kind of heat stress,” he said.

“This is causing hotter condition during this week as we experienced in Juba here, particularly it was very hot, even for today, it will be about 43 degrees Celsius over Juba station.”

Oboul advises residents to take precautions against heat-related illnesses by avoiding tedious outdoor activities during the daytime, staying hydrated, and staying indoors as much as possible.

In March 2024, the national government directed state authorities to close all schools after the Ministry of Environment and Forestry issued an extreme heat advisory – forecasting temperatures varying from 41 to 45 degrees Celsius for weeks in Juba and most parts of South Sudan.

According to World Health Organization (WHO), heatwaves and prolonged excess heat conditions are increasing in frequency, duration, intensity and magnitude due to climate change.

WHO warns that heat stress is the leading cause of weather-related deaths and can exacerbate underlying illnesses including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental health, and asthma.