Dr Luka Biong Deng, Managing Director of the Sudd Institute - Courtesy

A prominent South Sudanese researcher has expressed doubt that the parties in the Tumaini talks will resolve key issues within the remaining two-week timeframe, as both sides continue to push for conflicting priorities.

In a statement shared with Eye Radio, Dr Luka Biong Deng, the Managing Director of the Sudd Institute, says the primary task of the mediation team is to resolve the outstanding issues and not to renegotiate the initiated protocols.

He pointed out that the mediators have proposed five critical agendas to guide the remaining talks. These include the relationship between the Tumaini Consensus Protocols and the R-ARCSS, the implementation structures and mechanisms, responsibility sharing, the sequencing of election preparation and the constitution-making process, and the timeframe for concluding the Tumaini Initiative.

According to Dr Luka, the real challenge to the process would be the sequencing of these agendas, particularly the relationship between the 2018 peace agreement and Tumaini since the government is prioritizing the merger of the two agreements while the opposition wants responsibility sharing first.

Despite the mediators’ best efforts, the answer to whether peace can be achieved in such a short time remains uncertain. “Political will be the key to success or failure,” says Dr. Luka, underscoring the challenge of navigating these complex discussions.

The mediators have proposed five critical agendas to guide the remaining talks: the relationship between the Tumaini Consensus Protocols and the R-ARCSS, the implementation structures and mechanisms, responsibility sharing, the sequencing of election preparation and the constitution-making process, and the timeframe for concluding the Tumaini Initiative. But time is running out, and achieving consensus on all of these issues within the next two weeks seems increasingly unlikely.

Dr. Biong is cautious but hopeful. “If the political will is present, these issues could be addressed in the time remaining,” he said. Some agendas, such as the clarification of the Tumaini protocols’ relationship with the R-ARCSS, are near resolution, as the protocols have already been initialed. But while Agenda 1 appears close to completion, other issues remain more contentious.

Agenda 2, which focuses on implementation mechanisms, is nearly ready for finalization, but the real struggle is over Agenda 3—responsibility sharing. The Opposition, which has shown less interest in securing positions, is less concerned with this issue, but the government has made it a priority. Meanwhile, Agenda 4, concerning the sequencing of election and constitutional processes, remains at the heart of the divide. The Opposition has proposed extending the transitional period to 36 months, a move that may be pivotal in moving negotiations forward.

However, the most critical obstacle to progress is the sequencing of the discussions themselves. The government is insistent on addressing Agenda 1 first, while the Opposition insists that responsibility sharing, Agenda 3, be prioritized. This tension could stretch the talks beyond their deadline unless a delicate compromise is reached.

The mediators, however, are bound by a directive from Presidents Salva Kiir and William Ruto in a joint communique issued on November 6, 2024. The two heads of state have instructed that the mediation team “resolve the outstanding issues within two weeks.” In doing so, the mediators must remain focused on the primary task: finalizing the protocols and not reopening renegotiations. The clarification of how the Tumaini protocols align with the R-ARCSS is important, but it should not take centre stage.

Dr. Biong suggests that a possible solution could be to address Agenda 1 and Agenda 3 simultaneously, recognizing that clarity between the protocols and the R-ARCSS does not need to involve renegotiation. This parallel approach might allow the mediation team to meet the demands of both parties while staying within the confines of the heads of state’s directive.

As negotiations continue, the hope for a breakthrough remains strong, even as expectations must be adjusted. The road ahead is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the coming days will be crucial in determining whether political will can overcome the deep divides, and if the Tumaini Talks will ultimately lead to lasting peace for South Sudan.