Egypt sends special forces and arms to Somalia on August 29, 2024 - Courtesy of AFP

Egypt has sent arms, military hardware and special forces to Somalia under the provisions of a military cooperation agreement the Arab League members signed earlier in August, security officials told Cairo-based media.

The National on Thursday, August 29, 2024, reported that the deployment of Egyptian troops drew an angry response from Ethiopia, Somalia’s neighbour and rival which is also at sharp odds with Egypt.

Ethiopia has warned that it would not stand by “while other actors” destabilised the Horn of Africa region.

Egypt and Somalia have forged closer relations since landlocked Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland earlier this year to lease coastal land in exchange for possible recognition of its independence from Somalia.

Somalia called the deal an assault on its sovereignty and said it would block it by all means necessary. It has also threatened to send home an estimated 10,000 Ethiopian troops there as part of a peacekeeping mission to fight Al Shabab militants if the deal is not cancelled.

Egypt, which has said it intends to apply to join a new African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia next year, has been at loggerheads with Ethiopia for over a decade.

The main issue is the construction by Addis Ababa of a massive Nile dam that Cairo fears would cut Egypt’s share of the river’s water. The most populous Arab nation depends on the river for most of its fresh water supply.

Egypt, one of the world’s driest nations, has said the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam threatens its existence. Ethiopia has repeatedly defended its right to build the dam, arguing that the $4.5 billion project was crucial to its development. It has also accused Egypt of meddling in its domestic affairs by helping secessionist rebels in its western Tigray region.

The security officials, who asked not to be identified, said two Egyptian military transport aircraft arrived at Mogadishu airport on Tuesday with arms, ammunition and about 300 commandos from an army special forces unit.

Photos taken on Tuesday and shared online showed the two desert-camouflaged aircraft and some of the troops, in full combat gear and standing in formation on the tarmac. The officials said it was the first batch of a group that would number in the low thousands, with a mandate to train and equip Somali army units and help protect key government facilities and officials.

By Thursday evening, said the officials, a total of eight Egyptian transport aircraft had landed at the airport since Tuesday, bringing more weapons and hardware. The number of commandos now on the ground in the Horn of Africa country has reached 1,000.

There will also be future shipments of Egyptian-manufactured defence equipment, including armoured vehicles, rocket launchers, artillery, anti-tank missiles, radars and drones, the officials said. Some of that will come overland from an Egyptian military facility in neighbouring Djibouti, they said.

The establishment of a military mission in Somalia and Cairo’s declared intention to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping force there would place Egyptian troops in dangerous proximity to Ethiopian forces across the border, a situation that could lead to hostilities.

The conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt would destabilise the Horn of Africa at a time when world powers are seeking calm in a region where they are vying for a foothold given the growing strategic value of its porous Red Sea coastline and fears of the Gaza war spreading into a regional conflict.

The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that the Horn of Africa was moving into uncharted waters and that it could not “stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilise the region”.

It said Ethiopia had worked to promote peace and security for Somalia and the region, including discussions to resolve differences with its neighbour.

“Instead of pursuing these efforts for peace, the government of Somalia is colluding with external actors aiming to destabilise the region,” the ministry said.

It did not mention Egypt or the arrival of Egyptian arms and troops in Somalia.

Egypt and Ethiopia have had more than 10 years of on-and-off negotiations without reaching an agreement over the Nile dam. They have frequently exchanged incendiary language and occasionally engaged in sabre-rattling as it became clear that a deal could not be reached.

The military co-operation deal signed on August 14 between Egypt and Somalia was the latest in a series of similar accords that Cairo has struck with Nile basin and Horn of Africa nations to flex its muscle and put pressure on Ethiopia to show flexibility over the Gerd dispute.

“In Egypt, you have friends and brothers you can depend on,” President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in August. It was the Somali leader’s second visit to Egypt since January.

“Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or compromise its security,” said Mr El Sisi. His nation’s actions in Somalia fall within the boundaries of international law and the two nations are bound by the Arab League’s joint defence pact, he added.

Expert Analysis

According to an analysis by the Washington, DC-based research institute, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), the deployment of Egyptian troops in Somalia aims to achieve four key objectives.

“Egypt’s military presence in Somalia aims to achieve four objectives: First, to assist the Somali army and raise its combat efficiency to deal with the terrorist operations of the Islamist Al-Shabaab terrorist organization. Second, to support the unity of the Somali territories by raising the capability of its armed forces. Third, to enhance Mogadishu’s participation in securing the Bab al-Mandab Strait. And fourth, to taunt Ethiopia and make its leaders uncomfortable.” — Haisam Hassanein, FDD Adjunct Fellow

“There is more to Egypt’s meddling in Somalia than meets the eye. This is a calculated move in the broader geo-political game, reflecting Cairo’s frustration with the diplomatic stalemate over Ethiopia’s dam project. By signaling its willingness to escalate, Egypt hopes to reign in the political and security threats posed by Ethiopia.” — Mariam Wahba, FDD Research Analyst